A Quick Guide to This GOP Speaker Mess

Because, yes, it is confusing.

[This blog will always be free to read, but it’s also how I pay my bills. If you have suggestions or feedback on how I can earn your paid subscription, shoot me an email: cmclymer@gmail.com. And yes, I do speaking engagements.]

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What the hell is going on? I’m here to answer your pressing questions.

Last night, Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL-01) filed a motion to vacate the Speaker of the House, or in other words: he moved for a vote to essentially fire Kevin McCarthy, the current Speaker, from that position.

Wait, can he do that?

Yes, because the rules package adopted by the House GOP when they took over this past January included a provision that allows any one member to call for a motion to vacate.

But why?

Because McCarthy had to concede this to the far-right just to get elected Speaker.

I don't understand. Why would Kevin McCarthy make himself so vulnerable as Speaker to manipulation by far-right members of the GOP?

Yes, friend, we have all been asking this since January.

Okay, so, is McCarthy gonna lose this vote?

Short answer: it is likely.

Longer answer: to oust McCarthy, Gaetz needs a simple majority of the members who are present voting in support of his motion. If all members are present, that would be 217 votes to vacate.

You mean 218. There are 435 voting members of Congress.

Yes, but there are currently two vacancies. With 433 total voting members, assuming all are present, the magic number to remove McCarthy would be 217.

Okay, will all be members be present?

It's unclear. There may or may not be absences. But just for initial clarity, let's assume the current margin of nine seats between GOP and Dems (221 to 212) stays the same after absences. Example: 219 to 210 (four absences, same margin).

If that margin stays the same and all Democrats vote in favor of the motion to remove McCarthy, then Gaetz would need just five Republicans, including himself, to be successful in this coup d'etat.

Okay, so all the other stuff aside like absences and whatnot, does Gaetz even have five Republicans who would vote to remove their own Speaker?

Yes, at the moment, Gaetz has five: himself, Eli Crane (AZ-02), Bob Good (VA-05), Matt Rosendale (MT-02), and Tim Burchett (TN-02).

Is there any way McCarthy can be saved?

Yes, either enough Democrats vote to save McCarthy (none have publicly committed, and it looks unlikely) OR there are enough absences or members voting "present" (neither yes nor no) to raise the threshold Gaetz would need to pass this.

Now, there is a possible wrinkle here: the vote is supposed to be this afternoon, but McCarthy could delay it to tomorrow (which is the deadline of two days for a motion to vacate, since Gaetz filed last night). That could buy him time to work out a deal with Dems.

All that said, if the vote is held this afternoon and the margin between present Dems and present GOP stays the same and no Dems come to McCarthy's rescue and Gaetz holds his five votes against and any "present" votes are moot, then McCarthy will be removed as Speaker.

How bad is this?

For the GOP, it's historically bad. There has only ever been one actual vote to vacate a Speaker (against Joseph Cannon in 1910), and that failed. In 2015, then-Rep. Mark Meadows (yes, that one) motioned to vacate John Boehner, but that didn't get a vote.

So, Kevin McCarthy would be the first Speaker of the House to be removed in American history, and this is after the GOP needed 15 ballots to elect him to that position in January. It's all very embarrassing for Republicans.

But more than that, this would significantly weaken Kevin McCarthy's fundraising prowess, which is partly what got him here in the first place.

This is very bad for the Republicans heading into the 2024 election cycle,

So, who would replace him?

Anyone who publicly claims to know the answer to this is being ridiculous. No one knows.

But I’ll tell you this much: if McCarthy is removed, we could be looking at another very long process to elect his successor.

And just like this past January, I’ll be here covering it all for y’all, both through here, Threads, and the website formerly known as Twitter.

Please do consider buying me a coffee.

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Hi, I’m Charlotte Clymer, and this is Charlotte’s Web Thoughts, my Substack. It’s completely free to access and read, but it’s also how my bills! So, please do kindly consider upgrading to a paid subscription: just $7/month or save money with the $70/annual sub. You can also go way above and beyond by becoming a Founding Member at $250.