Charlotte's 2024 Election Night Guide
A guide to soothe your anxiety.
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We’re almost done, y’all. We’re almost there.
It’s been two years (honestly, it’s more like four years) of constant punditry and news cycles and polls and stress and doom scrolling and court appearances and DOJ announcements and on and on, but at long last, in about 24 hours, the polls on the East Coast will close, and we will enter the final hours of this damned, arduous marathon of existential torture.
Last night, a dear friend of mine, quite brilliant and successful in her field, reached out because, like all of us, she’s nervous, and although she’s informed on the news and whatnot, she largely stays outside all the complicated machinations of the Electoral College and she had one question: “How are you feeling about all this?”
And it occurred to me that a lot of y’all are in a similar place where you may need a bit of helpful context to Election Night, so you don’t collapse into an anxiety puddle before the polls have even closed.
I get it, and I got you. I think a little bit of knowledge as the polls close can be empowering and prevent unnecessary panic attacks.
This guide is meant for folks who don’t know a lot about the Electoral College or maybe know just enough for basic understanding but not much more than that. It’s for people who have questions about all this but don’t know how to ask or feel foolish for asking.
You shouldn’t feel foolish. It’s ridiculous that we even have the Electoral College (more on that in a second). It is healthy and smart to question this clownish system.
This is definitely not meant for people who live, breathe, and sleep politics. You will get nothing from this. Political nerds, you have been warned. I am trying to save you time. Go do some phone banking. (Seriously. Go call voters. NOW.)
The guide is divided into three parts:
1. Explaining the Electoral College and why we have it, so you can understand the absurdity of how we got here.
2. The actual analysis of states and my read of how the votes will shake out.
3. Some closing thoughts that I feel are important to note.
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE (OR: WHAT IS THIS STALE CORNER OF HELL?)
Okay, so, why can’t we just be rational and elect our president with a popular vote?
You are right to ask this. It means you’re a reasonable adult.
Back when the Constitution was being written, the country was divided into states where slavery was central to society and states where it was either prohibited or on its way to being abolished.
The free population of the “free states” was almost double that of the states where slavery was celebrated, and thus, the southern states refused to go along with a direct popular vote because they knew they’d get their asses kicked at the ballot box every four years.
There was much debate, and long story short: a compromise was reached in which each state would select a number of electors that would vote on their behalf for the president.
The number of electors each state got was proportional to their population. In one of the all-time shittiest things our country has ever done, to appease southern states, enslaved people were counted as three-fifths of a free person toward the population total.
Yes, we literally have the Electoral College because of slavery.
The number of Electoral College votes each state gets is equal to their congressional delegation, or the number of seats they have in the U.S. House plus the two U.S. Senate seats.
Every ten years, there’s a census taken of the United States, which, among other things, determines how many folks live in each state. Based on that data, the states are re-apportioned seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
For example, Texas has 40 votes in the Electoral College; that’s equal to 38 seats in the U.S. House plus the two seats in the U.S. Senate.
Before the 2020 Census, Texas had 38 votes in the Electoral College: 36 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate. It’s increased proportion of the U.S. population resulted in it getting more U.S. House seats, and thus, more Electoral College votes.
Wait, so, are there people still serving as electors?
Yes. Each state has a process by which folks are selected to serve as electors representing their states in the Electoral College. Every presidential candidate qualifying for the ballot in any given state will have their own slate of electors that will vote on their behalf in the Electoral College based on the result of the popular vote in that state.
Okay, so, every state awards Electoral College votes based on a popular vote of all citizens of that state, but a small group of electors are the ones who carry that out officially? What if they change their mind?
This is an excellent question. There’s a long history of electors who originally pledged to vote for a specific candidate based on the popular vote of their state but then switched their vote to someone else. They’re called “faithless electors.”
You should not be worried about this. First of all, 38 states and D.C. expressly prohibit the actions of faithless electors, meaning their vote switch is nullified.
Charlotte, there are twelve other states — what the hell? What kind of guide is this?
Ah, ah, ah, lemme finish. The process for becoming an elector representing a particular presidential candidate in any given state is done through the candidate’s party apparatus. It takes years of building relationships, earning your stripes, etc.
So, to become an elector, you really gotta be a true believer. Is it possible that someone could spend MANY YEARS earning a spot as an elector and switch their vote in those twelve states?
I mean, sure, it’s technically possible, but it’s more likely to be found in the wet dreams of political thrillers written by thrice-divorced men than in real life.
Don’t worry about this. It’s silly to have anxiety over it. The only recent time this was prominent was in 2016 when Sec. Clinton had already officially lost and a number of electors in both parties switched their votes for various reasons, knowing it wouldn’t change the end result.
Okay, how many votes in the Electoral College does it take to be elected president?
270 is the magic number. That’s out of a total of of 538 votes in the Electoral College.
What if there’s a 269-269 tie?
I want to be abundantly clear that this will not happen. You do not need to worry about this. It’s a stupid scenario that is mathematically improbable in this particular election but constantly pushed by dorkass pundits who love drama and stirring shit. Do not worry about this.
But I will explain: in the event of a tie in the Electoral College, the president would be voted on by the *incoming* U.S. House of Representatives; each state’s House delegation gets one vote and the candidate who reaches 26 votes is elected president. The vice president would be elected with a simple majority of the new U.S. Senate.
But again: this will not happen.
Is every state’s votes in the Electoral College winner-take-all?
No. That’s true for 48 states and D.C., but two states—Nebraska and Maine—award Electoral College votes by statewide vote and congressional district. Nebraska awards two votes to the statewide winner and a vote from each of its three congressional districts; Maine awards two votes to the statewide winner and a vote from both of its two congressional districts.
All you need to know here is that NE-02 (Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district) and ME-02 (Maine’s 2nd congressional district) are the only two theoretical swing votes, but it’s widely accepted that NE-02 will go to VP Harris and ME-02 will go to Trump.
ELECTION NIGHT 2024 — HOW THE VOTES WILL LIKELY SHAKE OUT
Okay, let’s get to the good stuff. This is obviously what you came for.
I approach my analysis of this year’s election a bit differently from most folks, and I’d like to think it creates more clarity than confusion.
First of all: I firmly believe that Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz will win at least 270 votes so long as the next 24 hours are spent doing everything we need to do on our end as supporters. And we will. I’m certain of that.
So, Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz will be elected.
The question is: by how much?
I divided all 50 states and D.C. into three different buckets:
1. States we can guarantee are going to either candidate. (Some pundits will argue with me about these being “guaranteed,” but they’re splitting hairs.)
2. States that are leaning toward either candidate.
3. States that are technically toss-ups but may be favorable to either candidate.
Here’s a map of my first bucket. Take a quick look, and before you start yelling at me, take a breath and read my explanation.
Oh god, I can hear the yelling now: “Wait, you think Florida—wait, what, Texas?! WHAT THE HELL, Wisconsin and Michigan?!”
Calm down. Lemme explain. This is a map of states that I can guarantee, beyond any shadow of a doubt, are going to either candidate. These are the concrete floors for both candidates.
You can take it the bank that these states are 100% firmly settled, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a high degree of confidence for many of the tan states pictured here.
THE SECOND BUCKET: these are states that are likely to go to either candidate but not 100% guaranteed to do so. They’re in a lighter shade of red or blue.
We got six states in this bucket: AZ, FL, IA, MI, WI, and TX. Let’s take them, one-by-one.
Arizona: This, in my humble opinion, is the most likely of all six states to flip from the polling predictions. It would not surprise me one bit if VP Harris wins it. Four years ago, Pres. Biden flipped AZ—which had voted for the GOP nominee for the previous five elections—by 10,547 votes. Yes, most recent polling has Trump ahead, but the early vote has 53% women (VP Harris has a gigantic lead among women voters) and there are also tens of thousands of voters of Puerto Rican descent.
Texas: It’s been tantalizing to Democrats for so long. As a proud Texan, I often tell folks that it’s a swing state in slumber for too many reasons to get into here. Do I think it’s finally our time? Most likely not. I would love nothing more than to be wrong, and I hope I am. But there are big reasons to hope: Pres. Biden lost the state by only 5.58 percent in 2020, the Dobbs ruling has put Texas front-and-center in the national conversation, and the Texas Democratic Party has been exceptional in organizing under the leadership of Monique Alcala. I’m not convinced Trump has it sewn up.
Florida: Believe it or not, I think VP Harris has a damn good chance in Florida. After Arizona, FL is the most likely to flip from conventional polling. First, Pres. Biden only lost by 3.36 percent in 2020; a lot of folks tend to forget it was that close. Second, a measure to codify abortion rights in the state constitution is on the ballot, which will drive Democratic turnout. Third, there’s a ballot measure to legalize recreational weed. Fourth, Florida is home to more voters of Puerto Rican descent than any other state: 1.2 million, and at least one poll found them overwhelmingly supporting the VP in the wake of the godawful “garbage” comments made at the Madison Square Garden rally.
Iowa: Who could have seen this coming? On Saturday, the legendary J. Ann Selzer published her final poll for the Hawkeye State showing VP Harris three points up over Trump. The reason you’ve seen so many politicos buzzing about it is because Selzer’s poll is considered the gold standard for Iowa and arguably the most consistently accurate poll in politics. Outside of the 2018 governor’s race, the Selzer poll has been within three points of the final margin-of-victory for every race she’s analyzed since 2010. Yes, the vast majority of those had error margins in favor of Democrats, but it’s the consistency that’s convincing. If Selzer has VP Harris three points up, there’s no reason to believe she isn’t the favorite to win it.
Wisconsin: Yep, it’s close, but don’t be nervous about it. Wisconsin is unusual in that it’s either super close or the victor has a solid, convincing margin-of-victory. What’s not unusual is that the Democratic nominee almost always wins there. WI has only gone for the GOP nominee once in the last nine presidential elections: Trump in 2016, when he won by just 22,748 votes (0.77%). The polls tip it to VP Harris, Dobbs is driving turnout, widely beloved WI Dem Chair Ben Wikler and team are exceptional organizers, and Gov. Tony Evers is at a 51 percent approval as of last week. I’m not worried about Wisconsin. They’re gonna get it done.
Michigan: I’ve been worried about Michigan for most of this year, but I’m not worried now looking at how central the state has been to the party’s national strategy. The VP’s campaign has done an exceptional job with outreach and organizing over the past three months — good lord, did you ever think you’d see Eminem endorsing onstage at a campaign rally? The party learned from its mistakes in 2016, when the GOP nominee won for the only time in the past eight presidential elections by 10,704 votes (0.22 percent). Pres. Biden won by 2.78 percent here in 2020. VP Harris has a very slim edge in recent polling. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has a 51 percent approval, and she’s been campaigning her heart out. Volunteers knocked on 127k doors yesterday alone. So, look, I get it, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over, run through the tape, all gas, no brakes, but I firmly believe we’ll win Michigan.
THE THIRD AND FINAL BUCKET: the swingiest of this year’s swing states, the most likely deciders: GA, NC, NV, and PA.
Let me start out here: I’m pretty damn confident that up to this point, VP Harris has a solid third bucket floor of 257 Electoral College votes. She only needs 13 more.
If she only wins PA (19) and loses the other three, she wins the presidency.
If she only wins GA (16) and loses the other three, she wins the presidency.
If she only wins NC (16) and loses the other three, she wins the presidency.
If shit completely hits the fan in the three bigger states and she only wins NV (6), she still wins the presidency if she gets the edge in AZ (11).
There are multiple paths to victory for VP Harris in this final bucket, but there is only path for Trump: he must win all three bigger states and that’s assuming we don’t get a shock result like VP Harris winning FL or a sorta-surprising result if she wins AZ.
In this bucket, Trump has to run the table.
Even if there’s a shocking loss like VP Harris losing Michigan (that will not happen but stay with me here), putting her at 242 going into this third bucket, she still has multiple paths to victory:
PA + NC, PA + GA, NC + GA, or one of these big three plus NV and AZ.
But again, even if he were to win Michigan, Trump has one fewer path to victory than VP Harris because AZ + NV + one of the big three still only gets him to 264 at the most.
Let’s talk about these states…
Pennsylvania: Pres. Biden won here by 80k votes in 2020 (1.17%). PA has gone to the Dem nominee in seven of the last eight presidential races, the exception being in 2016 when Trump won by about 56k votes (0.61%). Gov. Josh Shapiro hovers around a 60 percent approval in the state, and his popularity is sure to give a significant advantage to the Harris-Walz ticket. PA has been a focal point of campaign volunteers; just yesterday, alone, 18k canvassers knocked on 700k doors. The VP’s campaign has practically made it a second home for surrogates, not to mention the VP herself doing frequent events there in the final stretch. Things looks good.
North Carolina: Yes, it is true that the Democratic nominee has only won here once since 1976. You can breathe into a paper bag over that, or you can focus on all the positive signs. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is a respected leader, coming off two consecutive terms and a convincing re-elect in 2020. His successor, Attorney General Josh Stein, is currently cruising to a double-digit victory over the very disturbing GOP nominee Mark Robinson. Both Mr. Cooper and Mr. Stein have been loud supporters of VP Harris. But the biggest asset is NC Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton, the youngest state party chair in the country, who has transformed the organization’s energy into a highly competitive operation. I’m feeling good about North Carolina. I believe they’re gonna get it done.
Georgia: The savior of democracy in 2020. Where would we be right now were it not for the flat-out phenomenal organizing on display in the Peach State? Not only did their efforts make Pres. Biden carry GA by 11,779 votes (0.23%)—the first time a Dem nominee has won there since 1992—but they went on to elect both Senate candidates that December. I get that the polls currently have this tipped toward Trump by a very small margin, and I don’t care. Never count out Georgia organizers. I’m optimistic they’re gonna pull it off tomorrow.
Nevada: Jon Ralston is widely considered the most knowledgable reporter on Nevada politics. The man is an undeniable expert on the electoral atmosphere there, and it shows in his long history of accurate predictions. This afternoon, he released his final prediction: “VP Harris, 48.5 percent, Trump 48.2 percent, others and none of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.” Polling aggregates have this in Trump’s favor by less than half a percent, but I have followed Mr. Ralston long enough to know that he knows this better than anyone. If he believes Nevada is going to VP Harris, I’m in no place to argue.
Based on all the above, here’s my final map, but it comes with an important caveat: this only happens if we do everything we can over the next 24 hours to drive out the vote. Calling voters, canvassing, checking-in with family and friends to make sure they know where to go and how to vote (iwillvote.org), etc.
This map is not a guarantee of the final result; it’s the expected reward for leaving everything out on the field. And we can do that. Just 24 more hours. We got this.
Okay, so, with all that said, I want to reiterate that I am fully confident that VP Harris will hit 270 in this election and be elected president, but there’s an important point here that can’t be lost:
We will most likely not have official confirmation of the Vice President’s victory by Wednesday morning, much less tomorrow night. That ain’t gonna happen.
It’ll take time to count the votes, to confirm the margins, to call states.
Some of these states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada—will take a while to confirm. Maybe a day or two. That is normal. Do not lose your mind if we’re getting past midnight, and the networks are still saying these are too close to call.
While some of the states—looking at you, North Carolina and Georgia—might very well be called by late tomorrow night. If one of these are called for VP Harris tomorrow evening, don’t break out the champagne yet, but definitely rest easy because her path to victory just became a lot easier.
IMPORTANT CLOSING THOUGHTS
There are several critical things y’all need to understand about tomorrow night:
1. Donald Trump will probably claim victory at some point during the late evening or early morning, regardless of how bad he’s doing on the map. Do not let this freak you out. All of us in the world of politics and advocacy are expecting him to do exactly this because it’s what he did in 2020. Ignore the clown.
2. Many (most?) of the states will not be called for either candidate right as the polls close, but some will! This is because analysts at election desks can accurately predict many of these states based on granular data. It’s for that same reason that these analysts will decline to call other states that are obviously going for either candidate until they’re absolutely certain. Do not torture yourselves because a state has not yet been called or Trump immediately wins a state as the polls close or a state has been called even though the TV banner shows that, like, 7% or something of the vote has been counted. Again: this is normal.
3. Here’s maybe the most important thing from Rachel Janfaza:
This is true, and you should spread the word to your family, friends, and neighbors that if they’re not registered to vote, they can do it the same day. They can do it at their polling place! Do not let them be discouraged from voting because they’re not yet registered.
4. I know many of y’all have heard this before but it bears repeating: if you are in line to vote by the time the polls have closed: STAY IN LINE. They are legally required to count your vote as long as you’re in line by that time.
Not sure when your polls close? Got you covered (or rather 270towin.com does):
As you can see, there’s a disclaimer at the bottom that this is not an official schedule and you should check with your local officials. I’m only posting this for quick reference, but if you want to confirm, go to iwillvote.org, where you can also find all the other information you’ll need on voting tomorrow.
5. Finally: if you have any problems at all while voting, no matter how trivial they may seem, you are absolutely allowed to ask questions of officials onsite, and if you’re still not satisfied, immediately reach out by phone or text, and an expert will help you sort through the problem:
In English: 1-833-DEM-VOTE (1-833-336-8683)
Text: VOTE to 70888
En Español: 1-833-DEM-VOTE (1-833-336-8683)
Text: VOTO to 70888
Y’all, if we run through the tape—all gas, no brakes—we’re gonna win this, and Kamala Harris will be elected the 47th President of the United States.
Do the work now, get out your loved ones to the polls, and enjoy tomorrow night after the polls have closed.
For all the right reasons, we’re gonna remember this for the rest of our lives.
Of all the versions published in these last few hours, yours is the most empathetic and the clearest, Charlotte. So I finally became a paid subscriber, after following you for years!
Thank you as always for your voice and leadership! I've been text and phone banking regularly and will be doing so again tomorrow. Let's win this thing!!!