Johnson and Trump Brace for Impact
Ginger, get the popcorn.
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Today, at noon, the 119th U.S. Congress will be gaveled into existence, there will be a quorum call, and then Mike Johnson—and Donald Trump—will face their first big political test of the new year: whether or not the Speaker can survive his reelection vote for another term.
It doesn’t look great for Mr. Johnson.
The House has 435 seats, and Republicans are coming into the new congress with the slimmest House majority in more than 90 years: 219 to 215.
(As you’ll recall, Matt Gaetz resigned from the House last month ahead of the release of an ethics report corroborating allegations that he paid for sex with a 17 year-old, among other things. His seat is currently vacant.)
The magic number to elect a Speaker is 218, which should be no problem for Republicans, right? They have 219 members. Easy peasy.
Ah, if only it were that simple.
Mr. Johnson is not well-liked by many of his colleagues on the far-right, who are largely quite upset over his handling of the budget bill drama last month, among other things.
Rep. Thomas Massie (KY-04) has already vowed to vote for someone else (he has not yet revealed that name). How sure is he about his decision?
Here’s what he told One America New Network’s new host Matt Gaetz (yes, same one):
“You can pull all my fingernails out, you can shove bamboo up in them, you can start cutting off my fingers. I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow, and you can take that to the bank.”
I don’t know about y’all, but I’m always delighted to see the repressed kinks in our politicians pop up in official statements.
So, that means Mr. Johnson has to hold every other member of the House Republican Caucus on the first ballot. If one more Republican votes for someone else this afternoon, that is likely the end of the Johnson Speakership.
Apart from being embarrassing for Mr. Johnson, it would also be an sizable blow to Trump, who has made a big show of standing beside the Speaker. After last month’s budget bill humiliation for both men, having his own party reject his choice for Speaker is like dumping kerosene on a house fire (heh).
Nothing else in the House can be done until a speaker has been elected. Members can’t be sworn-in. Committees can’t be formed. Bills can’t be passed. Nothing. Nada.
Most importantly, by a country mile, if House Republicans can’t elect a speaker by January 6th, Congress will be unable to ratify Trump’s election.
Yes, you read that right: House Republicans may directly enable a subversion of the election of Trump four years to the day that Trump directly enabled an effort to subvert the election of President Biden.
As you may recall, it took four days and fifteen ballots for Republicans to re-elect Kevin McCarthy at the start of the 118th Congress.
And although highly unlikely, if a speaker election mess lasted until Jan. 20th (Inauguration Day), it would mean Sen. Chuck Grassley, the Senate Pro Temp, would become president.
That will not happen, I assure y’all, but the fact that we’re even talking about it kinda shows how absurd this situation is.
Anyway, all of this will be carried live at noon, and during the vote by roll call (every member of the House voices their vote alphabetically), Mr. Johnson’s fate will become readily apparent.
Friendly reminder that Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi won every leadership vote of her House career on the first ballot.
Here are the names to keep an eye on:
Andy Biggs, Eric Burlison, Tim Burchett, Andrew Clyde, Eli Crane, Michael Cloud, Andy Harris, Ralph Norman, Scott Perry, Chip Roy, and Victoria Spartz
If just one of these folks—ONE—votes for someone other than Mr. Johnson, he fails on the first ballot, and that’s likely the end of his Speakership.
And then, it’s anyone’s guess what happens next. It could be days of nonsense as Republicans struggle to get their shit together as the party in power.
The work of Congress will have to legally be halted, which is not only bad for the country in the sense of broad public policy but presents an enormous national security risk.
This is just a preview of what’s to come. Mr. Johnson or whomever the hell is elected Speaker will have to somehow navigate this razor-thin majority, mollifying the far-right faction without alienating vulnerable Republicans in moderate districts.
Just bad, bad, bad. Welcome back to “thoughts and prayers” governing.
One silver lining in all this: as the roll call is carried out, you’ll hear Sarah McBride become the first openly-trans Member-Elect to be heard on the House floor.
I’m quite looking forward to that. Proud of you, Congresswoman-elect.
" May you live in interesting times. "
source unknown (I look forward to your angry letters)
Charlotte,
Things are going to get sporty for Donnie, Lil’ Mike and the GOP caucus.