Remarkably, Democrats Are Winning the Shutdown Debate
And it's not even close.
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Nearly 48 hours ago, at midnight eastern, the federal government shut down for the first time since 2019. This is the third time the federal government has entered a shutdown under Trump, the most for any presidency.
He also owns the presidential records for the longest single shutdown (35 days) and the most cumulative days of the federal government being in a shutdown (40 days as of this morning).
The only thing Trump loves doing more than shutting down the government is wasting time and taxpayer money on his golf trips while in office (at least 360 days at a cost of $180M total over both terms).
This latest shutdown is the result of Trump and the GOP seeking deep and completely unnecessary spending cuts for health care programs, notably the Affordable Care Act.
Basically, they’re holding the federal government hostage—and our economy and the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of more federal workers—solely for the purpose of stripping health care benefits for many millions of Americans.
Their proposed cuts would lead to at least 17 million Americans losing subsidies that help them afford health insurance in the ACA marketplace. Millions of low-income and middle income enrollees would be priced out entirely. Millions of others would have higher monthly premiums.
The 41 states (and D.C.) with Medicaid expansion would see their budgets strained and find it quite difficult (or unable) to fill the gap left by matching federal funds being stripped. Some states would have to rollback Medicaid assistance and rural hospitals would be under severe strain from higher uncompensated care costs.
It would also lead to instability in insurance markets, which would definitely affect even middle-class families who are currently covered.
And all of that, in turn, would be pretty damn bad for the American economy, which currently has sputtering job growth and higher consumer prices. Do I even need to mention the incoming waves of consequences due to Trump’s disastrous tariffs?
So… it would all be pretty bad, no matter how you slice it. Millions would lose health coverage, the workforce would suffer, prices will continue to rise, and Trump’s anemic economy would basically be kicked in the face while it’s currently down on its knees.
I’ll take a moment here to point out this administration likes to boast of itself as the most Christian-friendly government in history, which, you’ll forgive me, seems very much at odds with Christ’s teachings on this matter alone.
You’d think Democratic leadership would relish this fight and perform superbly in their communications strategy, but Leader Schumer and Leader Jeffries have struggled to land on powerful messaging. I will certainly give them credit for holding their caucuses together against this nonsense, but the comms ain’t great.
And yet, remarkably, by all available polling data, Trump and the Republican Party are clearly losing the public debate. It’s not even close.
The Washington Post published a poll yesterday—the first day of the shutdown—in which 47% of respondents blamed Trump and the GOP, 30% blamed Democrats, and 23% weren’t sure.
Morning Consult’s poll published Monday found similar: 45% blame Trump and the GOP, 32% blame Democrats, and 23% combined chose “no opinion” or “other.” But also, alarmingly for Republicans, 41% of independents blame Trump/GOP versus just 23% of them blaming Democrats.
NPR/PBS/Marist jointly published a poll taken of voters between Sept. 22nd thru 26th and found: 38% blame Trump/GOP, 27% blame Democrats, 31% blame both, and 5% combined for “neither” or “unsure.”
Taken roughly over the same period, NYT/Siena’s poll found: 26% blame Trump/GOP, 19% blame Democrats, 33% blame both, 21% “not heard enough to say,” and less than one percent didn’t now or didn’t answer.
So, even with Democratic leadership inexplicably being unable to take advantage of this messaging opportunity, the party seemingly having one hand tied behind its back, Trump and the GOP are still losing among voters.
That’s not all Democrats. Much of the rank-and-file in Congress have been exceptional at getting the word out about how Republicans are trying to screw over working class and low-income families.
Just as one example, Congresswoman Sarah McBride put out an amusing viral video in which she scours the Halls of Congress looking for her Republican colleagues, a sharp commentary on how most of them skipped town instead of working to avert a shutdown.
Scores of other Members and Senators have taken to social media and news networks to make it clear what these health care cuts would mean for millions of Americans who rely on them for a basic safety net from financial ruin and medical despair.
And finally, late this afternoon, Leader Jeffries landed a minor hit when he challenged Republican leadership to meet him in front of press tomorrow to hash out this debate publicly in front of the cameras. It ain’t amazing, but it’s something. It’s decent. I feel like he could do a lot better, but I’ll take it.
I don’t know, y’all. I’m trying my best to root for Democratic leadership—you know, the Democrats with the biggest microphones and easiest access to the press—and I’m finding it hard to get excited. Something’s not quite clicking. I pine for the days when Nancy Pelosi was kicking Trump’s ass with seemingly effortless comms.
And yet, despite that, Democrats are still winning the public debate. Imagine how big these polling gaps would be if Mr. Schumer and Mr. Jeffries had a comms strategy that had folks fired up.
Sigh… it is what it is. Let’s take the current polling momentum and hope for better in the coming days.
Millions of vulnerable Americans are counting on them.
Why are so many Dems such spineless wimps? I sincerely cannot understand it. Charlotte, could you just run the Dem party for the next few years? I think we’d all appreciate it.
Maybw Hakeem just needs a fantastic red coat and sunglasses.