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You may or may not have a relative or friend or acquaintance in your life who has posted on social media in the past few days, quite sardonically, that there’s a lot of money to be made in betting on Algerian boxer Imane Khelif, who just made it to the semifinals of women’s boxing in the 66kg weight class at the Paris Olympics.
The past several days have seen a deluge of disinformation across the internet regarding Ms. Khelif, whose sex has been called into question because she was simply too good in her Olympics match against Italy’s Angela Carini, who gave up 46 seconds into their bout and then implied Ms. Khelif may not be a fair competitor.
Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, J.K. Rowling, rightwing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and YouTube star Logan Paul, among others, have viciously spread vile propaganda that Ms. Khelif is actually a man, not only smearing her reputation with transphobic and misogynistic nonsense but also likely putting her in danger.
To be clear, there are three trans athletes in the Paris Olympics, none of whom are trans women. You can read more about them right here.
But hey, it’s been interesting to watch the response of sports betting markets!
That’s probably why your “very concerned” relative insisted on plunking down a wad of cash on Ms. Khelif winning the Gold Medal in her weight class, despite simultaneously dehumanizing her.
Let’s review how betting odds work.
1. The better the odds for an athlete winning, the lower they yield for bettors.
Ms. Khelif, for example, currently has -500 odds on Fanduel. This has jumped substantially in light of the anti-trans propaganda online this week.
That means a bettor has to wager $5 on her in order to make $1.
The question then becomes: would you put down $500 to make $100?
Some folks would, but it's pretty risky.
It's even riskier when you consider that the odds are very likely inflated due to the incomplete reporting on Ms. Khelif over the past several days.
That brings me to my second point.
2. Ms. Khelif has a 42-9 record.
She has lost previously to nine other women. Nine.
That includes a loss to Amy Broadhurst of Ireland in the World Boxing Championships, who is among the women loudly defending Ms. Khelif against these horrid accusations.
Nine times she's lost to other women in the ring. Think about that.
That brings me to my third point.
3. There has been no evidence presented that Ms. Khelif has XY chromosomes, but a woman having XY chromosomes does not mean she's a man.
Contrary to what I think most of us were taught in 6th grade biology, there are non-trans women with XY chromosomes and non-trans men with XX chromosomes. This is long-established science. You can read more about it here.
There is also no evidence that Ms. Khelif has differences in sexual development (DSD) or Swyer's Syndrome or any other condition that may present her chromosomal status as having substantially "male" sex characteristics.
That brings me to my fourth point.
4. Ms. Khelif was disqualified by the IBA last year in incredibly murky circumstances.
The International Boxing Association (IBA) refused to be transparent about their testing methodology, which, in itself, is bonkers.
Her disqualification just so happened to come three days after she beat Russian boxer Azalia Amineva in the semfinals of the IBA Women's World Championship.
The IBA has strong, documented ties to the Russian government.
Its president, Umar Kremlev, is a Russian citizen. He also serves on the Executive Committee of Russia's boxing federation.
After becoming its president in 2020, Mr. Kremlev moved the IBA's operations to Russia and made Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy company, its sole sponsor.
Mr. Kremlev is an associate of Putin, which feels pretty redundant to state after all the above.
All of this, plus a number of other concerns over corruption, led to the International Olympic Committee, last year, stripping the IBA as an eligibility authority for the Paris Olympics.
In response, Mr. Kremlev called IOC President Thomas Bach a "chief sodomite."
Classy.
That brings me to my fifth point.
5. Ms. Khelif's country, Algeria, is notoriously anti-LGBTQ.
The rights of queer Algerians is abysmal. Are there non-LGBTQ Algerians who support equality? Of course, but the Algerian government does not.
It is illegal to be transgender in Algeria.
It is impossible for a trans woman to obtain an Algerian passport indicating her as female. Ms. Khelif would literally not be able to leave the country with a female passport if she were transgender, which she is not.
Of course, this is further moot given that 1) Ms. Khelif's father has provided her birth certificate establishing she was assigned female at birth and 2) trans women are barred from competing in boxing at the Olympics.
That brings me to my sixth point.
6. This isn't really about whether or not Ms. Khelif is a woman.
It's about women athletes only being valid when they meet arbitrary standards of femininity as defined through the male gaze.
Women athletes as varied as Serena Williams and Katie Ledecky—whom I think most of us would agree are gorgeous (not that it should matter, of course)—have been targeted in the past by vile rumors that they aren't really women.
Because they're too damn good and aspects of their bodies may not align with the absurd and arbitrary expectations of the male gaze.
Women can be successful in the male gaze if, and only if, they please the male gaze.
And even then, not really.
That brings me to my final point.
7. Male athletes don't deal with this nonsense.
When a man is stronger and faster, preternaturally gifted, has extraordinary biological deviations from the norm, he is celebrated and mythologized.
When a male boxer KOs their opponent in the first ten seconds of a bout, it is cause for adulation. When a woman does it, she is suspect.
Sounds a lot like misogyny to me.
Of course, Angela Carini, the Italian boxer whom Ms. Khelif defeated in that bout that launched this whole controversy, recognized this within a day of the match.
She said:
"All this controversy certainly made me sad, and I also felt sorry for my opponent, she had nothing to do with it and like me was only here to fight... It was not intentional, in fact I apologize to her and to everyone. I was angry, because my Games had already gone up in smoke. I have nothing against Khelif and on the contrary if I happened to meet her again I would give her a hug."
She hasn’t been the only one to back off. The Boston Globe released a rare statement apologizing for their sloppy reporting on the story, and Logan Paul released a statement backpedaling on his claims.
I'm gonna leave it there.
So, if your relative would like to risk $500 to win $100 on all this controversy and disinformation surrounding Ms. Khelif, they are welcome to do so.
But it seems like a wobbly bet.
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