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I know it’s asking a lot, but remember way back when Matt Gaetz filed a motion-to-vacate against then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy?
That was a little over three weeks ago, and in that time, House Republicans have put forward three separate speaker-designates (that’s the term for a presumptive Speaker before the majority party ostensibly votes them in): Reps. Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, and Tom Emmer.
For those unfamiliar, the typical process for the party holding the majority in the House is to nominate one (1) speaker-designate, who is then promptly voted in, takes the gavel, and pursues some sort of legislative agenda.
There’s usually not much, if any, suspense. Sometimes, a sitting Speaker may be challenged within their party before the start of a new congress, but after that, by the time the process gets to the House floor, there are no surprises.
Which is all to say that this year has been completely bonkers, and the past month, in particular, has been especially embarrassing for House Republicans. In the midst of several international crises (Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, Taiwan), yet another looming budget showdown in a few weeks, and numerous other problems to address, the House GOP has been steadfastly aloof and incompetent over this speaker mess.
Why is this so important? Because it’s unclear if legislation can be passed by the chamber without a Speaker who has been voted into that position. The unelected Speaker pro tempore—Rep. Patrick McHenry—may not have constitutional power to do so, and moreover, McHenry has flat-out refused to test that theory.
For a while there, a plan was floated for the bulk of the Republican majority to partner with Democrats and temporarily “elect” McHenry for a short period in order to pass critical legislation—similar to how a continuing resolution kicks the can down the road in a budget fight—but that got scrapped.
Also: the Speaker of the House is second-in-line to the presidency, just after the Vice President, and this vacancy presents a wee bit of a constitutional crisis on that front, too.
Anyway, only Jordan wound up getting a vote on the House floor (three failed ballot attempts, in fact) because Scalise had the good sense to avoid embarrassment and Emmer was essentially pushed out early yesterday evening, a mere 4 hours and 10 minutes after he won the conference vote.
Finally, much later in the evening, Mike Johnson, a four-termer representing Louisiana’s 4th congressional district and currently serving as the Vice Chair of the House Republican Conference, was named speaker-designate after three ballots in the party conference.
More on him in a second, but how the hell did we get here? A quick timeline:
January: After the GOP regained power in the House, Kevin McCarthy won the conference vote to become speaker-designate but then struggled through a jaw-dropping 15 separate ballots to finally get the gavel. In exchange for the title, he bargained away much of his power to extremists within his party conference, including the unprecedented implementation of a rule that would allow any single member to file a motion-to-vacate the chair, or in other words: it would only take one person to ask for a vote to fire McCarthy from the position.
Oct. 2: Matt Gaetz takes advantage of McCarthy's earlier concession and files a motion-to-vacate.
Oct. 3: McCarthy is removed before a vote of the full House, 216-210. Gaetz and his cronies within the GOP joined Democrats in voting to fire McCarthy. Dems gave McCarthy several options to keep the gavel and avoid this, but McCarthy refused to play ball.
Oct. 4: Jordan and Scalise announce their bids for speaker-designate. Rep. Troy Nehls announces he'll nominate Trump for Speaker, which creates fairly considerable buzz that it may happen.
Oct. 5: Trump endorses Jordan.
Oct. 11: In a private vote by the GOP House Conference, Scalise defeats Jordan, 113-99, to become speaker-designate.
Oct. 12: Scalise withdraws when it's clear he doesn't have the votes to overcome his detractors within the GOP.
Oct. 13: Jordan defeats Austin Scott, 124-81, in another private vote by the GOP House Conference, becoming the second speaker-designate this month.
Oct. 17: Jordan loses on the first ballot before the full House. He needed 217 to get the gavel. He could only muster 200 votes. That means 17 GOP colleagues voted against him.
Oct. 18: Jordan loses on the second ballot, becoming the first speaker-designate to fail to reach 200 votes before the full House. Desperate, Jordan and his allies allegedly threatened a number of his colleagues, attempting to bludgeon them into his corner. This completely backfires, and Jordan makes up no ground.
Oct. 19: More stories about Jordan’s aggressive—possibly illegal—tactics come to light, and his candidacy is widely assumed to be dead. This does not make him drop out, however.
Oct. 20: Jordan holds a bizarre press conference that morning in which he quotes the Bible and says he’ll prevail. Literally moments after the presser begins, one of Jordan’s allies, Rep. Derrick Van Orden, announces that he’s in Israel (!!!). Jordan can only lose four GOP votes. Not a great sign! He proceeds to be further humiliated, losing his third consecutive ballot for Speaker. Later that day, Jordan is removed as speaker-designate in a private conference vote, 112-86.
Oct. 20-22: A candidate forum is scheduled for the 23rd and nine candidates file before the deadline to be considered for speaker-designate.
Oct. 23: Following the candidate forum, two candidates withdrew (Dan Meuser and Gary Palmer), leaving seven candidate vying for the big chair.
Oct. 24 (yesterday): After five rounds in their private conference vote, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, House Majority Whip (3rd-ranking House Republican), emerges as the speaker-designate. Emmer is a controversial choice for House Republicans because he voted to certify the 2020 election results (gasp) and supported the Respect for Marriage Act. He is seen as more moderate than his opponents, yet Matt Gaetz inexplicably supports him and whips votes in his favor, which kinda implied Trump supported him, too. Here’s where things get even more chaotic…
Just past noon, Emmer won the vote and almost immediately called for a roll call within the conference to determine if he had enough support to go to the floor. There were reportedly 26 GOP holdouts. Remember: he could only lose four. Not good. But Emmer does have Gaetz and several other Freedom Caucus folks in his corner. So, maybe there’s a path.
At 1:11pm, Donald Trump, while sitting in court listening to Michael Cohen testify against him, posts on his platform Truth Social that Emmer is a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) who shouldn’t be Speaker. Ruh-roh.
This causes a hell of a stir within the GOP conference, and Emmer is making no gains in bringing holdouts into the fold. The conference adjourns until 4pm to figure things out.
Just past 2pm, Gaetz, who just voted for Emmer and quietly worked to get him over the threshold within the conference, is asked by CNN’s Olivia Beavers about Trump’s post on Truth Social and responds that it’s really important to listen to “the leader of our party.” RUH-ROH. Also: WHAT?!
In that moment, Emmer’s candidacy is basically dead, and everyone is just working to figure out what happens next before House Republicans reconvene.
Just after 4pm, the GOP conference gathers again, and Emmer drops out. He then promptly leaves the conference in a huff, even while his colleagues stay to figure out where to go from there. Reportedly, Rep. Rick Allen told Emmer in front of all their GOP colleagues that he needs to “get right with Jesus” due to his support last year for the Respect for Marriage Act, the new law that grants federal recognition to same-sex marriages. Anyone still believe these people aren’t trying to overturn Obergefell?
At 6pm, the GOP conference reconvenes yet again, and after three ballots, Johnson wins the vote over Byron Donalds, 128-29. They then do a roll call vote to determine if he’ll have the support for a full floor vote; he gets 199 votes, with three members voting “present” and a few dozen members not voting. (Once again: he can only lose four GOP votes.)
There will supposedly be a speaker vote before the full house today.
Okay, so, that leads to two questions: 1) Who is this Mike Johnson guy? and 2) Does he have the votes?
Mike Johnson is far-right. He’s a steadfast supporter of Trump, notably serving as a member of his legal defense team during both impeachment trials in the Senate. He supported the Muslim travel ban, he opposes military aid to Ukraine, he’s aggressively anti-LGBTQ and anti-choice — he’s basically a Putin-sympathetic Christo-fascist.
But it’s really not clear that he has the votes. Because Johnson has flown under the radar, America really doesn’t know him or his political positions yet. It’s quite a roll of the dice for Republicans in Biden districts: do they take a chance on this guy now and hope he doesn’t hurt their reelection chances next year? Pretty damn risky call.
Here’s where Johnson is dangerous: he’s made few enemies among his colleagues, and he appears to be disciplined in presentation, a far cry from Jordan’s toddler antics. This could be enough to get him to 217, but again: he can only lose four GOP votes, and with his extremist positions, it’s asking a lot for his more moderate colleagues to take one for the team.
Anyway, per usual, I will be live-tweeting the speaker vote when it takes place today, god help me. And as always, if you’d like to buy me a cup of coffee for my coverage of this ongoing fiasco, I’d certainly be grateful.
I will leave you with this not-so-fun fact: there are 19 male House Republicans named Michael or Mike, and there are 33 women. When asked yesterday why no Republican women have run for speaker-designate, Rep. Cathy Morris-Rodgers replied: “We’re wiser.”
Oh, lord.
The Next Contestant On the House is Far-Right