Down Goes Macbeth of Manhattan
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow...
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It wasn’t yet 10:30 on the East Coast last night when former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo called to concede the NYC Democratic mayoral primary to 33 year-old Zohran Mamdani, who has served as a member of the New York State Assembly since 2021.
No one was really expecting to have a definitive result until next week. This was supposed to be a close finish. Instead, an astonished Mr. Cuomo got his clock cleaned by Mr. Mamdani’s coalition before bedtime.
To describe this as merely a “big upset” feels ridiculously mild. On many different levels, it’s so much more. Regardless of whom you were supporting in this primary, the result is definitive and seismic and will be reverberating at every level of the Democratic Party for the foreseeable future.
Since 2019, New York City has used ranked choice voting (RCV) for its citywide elections. Quick summary of how that works:
Voters rank (up to) their top five preferences among the candidates on their ballot. The first round of counting only tabulates their first choice, the second round tabulates their first and second choices, third round for choices 1 thru 3, and so on.
After each round, the weakest candidate is dropped for the next round, until one candidate secures a majority in any round.
As of late last night, with 92 percent of votes in, Mr. Mamdani was leading Mr. Cuomo in the first round, 43.5% to 36.4%. This may not seem like a big deal at first glance, but Mr. Mamdani has cross-endorsed with fellow progressive and NYC Comptroller Brad Lander, who currently stands at 11.3%.
Simply put: that alone means Mr. Mamdani is essentially guaranteed to win in the final, head-to-head round of vote tabulation against Mr. Cuomo, if not sooner by majority, although it won’t be official until next week at the earliest, allowing time for provisional and mail-in ballots.
Mr. Mamdani is the youngest candidate to win an NYC mayoral primary. He’s also the first Muslim to win. He’s also the first democratic socialist to win.
He was also out-spent by Mr. Cuomo about 3-to-1, most of that support for Mr. Cuomo coming from corporate interests through PACs.
Mr. Cuomo was Governor of New York from 2011 thru 2021, Attorney General of New York from 2007 thru 2010, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from 1997 thru 2001 (under President Clinton), and Assistant HUD Secretary during Mr. Clinton’s first term.
His father is the late Mario Cuomo, Governor of New York from 1983 thru 1994, a titan of the Democratic Party throughout his career, both statewide and nationally, often thought to be a strong, possible contender for the White House, particularly after his landmark address at the 1984 DNC, though he famously never took the plunge.
The story goes—dubbed “Hamlet on the Hudson”—that the late Gov. Cuomo had a plane waiting on a tarmac ready to whisk him away to file for the New Hampshire primary in 1992, just before the deadline, but he backed out at the last minute.
Depending on whom you ask (again), this was either to fulfill his duties as governor during a state budget negotiation or it was because he thought no Democrat, including him, could beat then-Pres. George H. W. Bush. (To be fair, most political observers at the time also thought Bush 41 was unbeatable.)
Anyway, that’s all to say: his son Andrew—“Macbeth of Manhattan”—is better networked in the Democratic Party than anyone whose last name isn’t Obama, Clinton, or Biden. The son of a king who believes he’s always been destined for great things and thus entitled to second and third and fourth and fifth acts.
Mr. Mamdani, meanwhile, is pretty much diametrically-the-opposite. He moved to NYC with his parents at seven. He received his U.S. citizenship in 2018. His family did not come from the formal political world. His pre-existing political network was about as strong as my professional connections in the world of NASCAR.
The Cuomo camp didn’t take him seriously, nor did Mr. Cuomo’s supporters. To them, all signs were pointing to a political comeback for the former governor after an extraordinary fall from grace that should have permanently ended his career, and in a world run by reasonable adults, it would have.
Although often contending with scandals and complaints here and there for much of his time as governor, Mr. Cuomo achieved enormous approval in his third term during the COVID pandemic, some 77 percent of New York State voters giving a “thumbs up” on his general job performance and 87 percent on his handling of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.
It was a burst of enthusiasm for a gubernatorial tenure that had felt tired and disappointing for most voters just prior to COVID. Suddenly, being elected to a fourth term was essentially assured, and the conversation quickly turned to his potential for a presidential ticket, some speculating as as soon as that year as Mr. Biden’s running mate.
For the rest of 2020, his approval numbers remained high. But then, one after the other, the biggest scandals of his career hit hard.
There was the book ethics scandal, in which Mr. Cuomo allegedly used taxpayer funds to write and promote his book “American Crisis: Leadership lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic" (the fallout from this is ongoing).
There was the nursing home scandal, in which Mr. Cuomo’s administration was found by Attorney General Letitia James in January of 2021 to have undercounted COVID-related nursing home deaths by as much as 50 percent in order to cover up the much debated effects of his order prohibiting nursing homes from COVID-testing incoming patients.
And then there were the many allegations of sexual harassment and assault. In December of 2020, his former aide Lindsey Boylan accused him of years of sexual harassment and assault. That was eventually followed by at least ten other women accusing him of various degrees of sexual harassment and assault, most of them current and former Cuomo staffers and state employees.
In the midst of all that, Mr. Cuomo was found to have been behind a public smear campaign intended to discredit Ms. Boylan, which included leaking her confidential personnel files to media and circulating an open letter (never published) of staffers willing to tarnish her character, the first draft of which Mr. Cuomo is alleged to have been involved in.
In August of 2021, Attorney General James released the findings of an investigation stating, in part, that he had sexually harassed at least eleven women, with actions toward some of them that can clearly be defined as assault.
That was followed by a flood of New York Democratic officials calling on him to resign: U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Reps. Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, NY Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, and scores of state legislators, among others.
Meanwhile, it was clear that the state legislature had the votes to impeach and remove him from office. Reading the tea leaves and not seeing any path forward, he officially resigned at the end of August, 2021.
But the past four years have felt like a few decades, and New York Democratic officials, with few bright spots, have mostly been seen stepping on a series of rakes, making the electorate feel uneasy and unsure.
Trump has been pounding away all this time, culminating in last year’s reelection victory, and many New York Democratic voters—not least Mr. Cuomo’s base of support—came to believe that the former governor was best equipped to take on Trump. Some wondered aloud if he might be the national party’s best hope in 2028.
Many other voters, Democrats or not, appeared to be too cynical towards the political landscape to think any other Democrat could beat Mr. Cuomo.
Back in December and January, I had numerous conversations with friends and colleagues in NYC, across the Democratic spectrum, who pretty much all agreed that Mr. Cuomo was about to romp through the primary.
It was inevitable, they felt, and those feelings hardened after incumbent NYC Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the Democratic primary in April in the midst of his ongoing litany of scandals.
A close friend of mine who’s lived in NYC for the past 26 years put it plainly: “I don’t like Cuomo, but no one else is gonna beat him.”
But those are voters, not party officials. It’s the job of electeds and party officials and politicians to offer an alternative vision and motivate the electorate.
Enter Zohran Mamdani.
He announced his campaign in October and basically lived in single-digit polling through March, such was his lack of name recognition. But he had an incredibly strong ground game, an exceptional social media presence, a bold public policy vision, and took just about every invitation that came his way to talk about the race in any media space that would have him.
He eventually had 50,000 volunteers criss-crossing all five boroughs (that’s a lot) and knocking on more than 1.5 million doors (that’s a hell of a lot). His campaign messaging strategy placed particular emphasis on affordability policies, language outreach, social media engagement, and again: being in just about any space that would have him. It was an exceptional campaign.
He also embodied a “happy warrior” approach to campaigning, his friendly competition and constant collaboration with Mr. Lander working to the benefit of both candidates.
On a personal note, I’ve appreciated his unwavering, proud, public support for trans equality in a moment when so many Democratic lawmakers are afraid to speak up for us and some seem all-too-willing to throw us to the wolves.
He comes across to a lot of NYC voters, particularly young voters, as both very nerdy and committed in his policy stances whilst being impossibly cool in presentation and a kind person to boot. He feels like the ideal anti-Trump candidate.
Up and up in the polls he’s climbed over the past several months, slowly building momentum, eventually emerging as the biggest threat to Mr. Cuomo, who practically positioned himself as “Trump but with good politics.”
It wasn’t great framing, and the voters seemed to take that personally.
One poll released by Emerson College last week had—for the first time—Mr. Mamdani barely beating Mr. Cuomo in the final round of RCV, setting off alarm bells for Democratic officials.
That led to, among other things, late endorsements for Mr. Cuomo from former president Bill Clinton and Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, as centrist and many center-left Democratic officials sought to salvage Mr. Cuomo’s campaign, which seemed to be teetering.
In the end, the Cuomo coalition was caught flat-footed at the buzzer and rightfully so.
Tonight, a friend of mine outside politics asked why NYC centrist and center-left Democrats had settled on Cuomo: “Was there really no one else that could have taken up that mantle?”
Ah, but there was one. That’s the cruel and incredibly stupid irony of all this.
Mr. Cuomo wasn’t the justified last resort by any stretch. He was simply seen by too many people (who should know better) as the easy and safe choice — “the devil you know” as I’ve seen him described by some centrist and center-left Democrats.
Yet, all along, Adrienne Adams was right there.
She comes from a working class family in Queens, from union parents, a first-generation college grad, got her start in politics on a community board in Queens, got elected to City Council, and built bridges with her colleagues, who then elected her Council Speaker at the beginning of her second term.
She was perfectly positioned to be the standard bearer for a center-left Democratic coalition.
Sure, she got into the race late, but that’s almost certainly because she felt the support wasn’t initially there with Mr. Cuomo and Mayor Adams taking up the centrist and center-left lanes, which is what happens when party officials have no imagination, play it safe, and decline to invest in deserving candidates.
Frankly, it pissed me off the way she was overlooked. Last week, when a friend in NYC who doesn’t keep up that much with politics asked for my advice on the race, I told him I’d rank Ms. Adams, Mr. Lander, and Mr. Momdani, in that order, but most importantly: leave Cuomo off entirely.
Last night would have been very different if NYC Democratic centrists and center-left folks got together a year ago and decided: You know what? We can’t possibly support a man who’s a serial sexual harasser. In fact, we should do everything we can to block him. Speaker Adams has the credentials and narrative to win. Let’s draft her to lead.
But they didn’t. And many of them decided instead to choose a serial sexual harasser perpetually embroiled in scandal over a highly-qualified, Black, queer woman with a damn good story and solid center-left positions.
Don’t believe me? Read this report that found 40 percent of New York Democratic elected officials who endorsed Mr. Cuomo in this race called on him to resign four years ago. 40 percent. FORTY. PERCENT.
Women often don’t even get first acts, and men like Andrew Cuomo, always the complicated hero in their own stories, feel entitled to at least five.
It was a terrible, ridiculous, embarrassing, and unconscionable gamble by party leadership. It would have still been all those things even if Mr. Cuomo had won last night.
The Democratic Party nationally—let alone in New York—is getting one hell of a wake-up call right now. Democratic voters are tired. We are frustrated. Many of us are anxious and exhausted and unnerved by the stubborn refusal of the Democratic Party to evolve beyond the stale political strategies of the past.
If I were Senator Schumer, I’d be very concerned about his reelection chances in 2028 because it sure looks as though Rep. AOC has all the momentum. Three years is an eternity in politics, but I don’t see this trajectory changing if Mr. Schumer remains incapable of grasping its contours — or unwilling to.
Speaker Adams could very well have been on her way to starting a new chapter in Democratic politics for NYC, but because of the cynicism and cowardice of many centrist and center-left Democratic officials in New York, Mr. Mamdani is deservedly celebrating tonight after a bold and dynamic campaign against a serial sexual harasser.
They have no one to blame but themselves.
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow…
While I am a CT voter, my heart will hold space for NYC, where I spent much of my adult life. Last night, as returns were coming in, I felt downright "giddy" (not a word I usually use publicly). No one should feel "entitled" to be in public service. Nor should anyone have to pay their dues. Or wait their turn. What I saw was emotion in a way that I've not seen in a long time. And emotion for someone, and not against someone. We need elected leaders who serve all of us and not to a few elite. (And yes, we would have also been well served by Adrienne Adams...her message -- and record -- is outstanding).
495 Days 16 Minutes & 7 Seconds until the mid terms. We gotta lot of work to do.
Tick Tock, mofos.