My Simple Guide to the Conclave
What to know about the papal election.
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Last year, during the chaos of the election—which enveloped my professional and personal lives—and with the havoc it was wreaking on my mental health, I needed a good distraction, and because I’m a gigantic nerd, I found myself researching the process for papal vacancies, the College of Cardinals, Vatican politics, etc.
Some of you might believe that degree of nerdiness is generally a cause for concern (and perhaps a cry for help), and you’re probably right. But I am what I am.
This was supposed to be solely an escapist activity, knowledge gleaned that was unlikely to be useful for at least a few more years, probably more.
Not once, in the many hours I spent researching all of this in the late summer and early fall, did it remotely cross my mind to worry about the health of Pope Francis.
Even though rumors began circulating in 2021 that he may resign on account of severe health problems, even when he began using a wheelchair in 2022 (which could hint at greater severity), even when he was twice hospitalized in 2023 (first for a respiratory infection, then for abdominal surgery), I honestly wasn’t too worried about him.
Cassandra I am not. Thus, take what follows with a grain of salt.
Regardless, the research itself was wonderfully distracting. I’ve long held a casual interest in Vatican politics, but I had never immersed myself so deeply in all of it.
So, I’ve written this guide-of-sorts for what we’re all about to see over the next few days given that folks probably have questions.
The College of Cardinals
The pope is elected by the College of Cardinals, which, as a body, is their most important role. Their second most important role is overseeing the administration of the Catholic Church during a papal vacancy.
However, that’s as far as their power goes. They can’t change Catholic doctrine or make any policy changes. Sometimes, I see them compared to Congress, and that is absolutely false. They elect the pope and then advise the pope, who has supreme authority over Church matters.
When there’s a papal vacancy, the eligible members of the College of Cardinals gather for what’s called a “conclave,” which is derived from cum clave—Latin for “with a key”—because during the entire voting process, the cardinal electors (and support staff) are sequestered from the outside world, locked inside, cut off from all communication.
No news, no phones, no internet, no pigeon mail, nothing.
Barring some global catastrophe, the cardinal electors (and their support staff) will have no idea what’s going on in the rest of the world, and we’ll have almost no idea what’s going on inside during voting, save for some occasional smoke from a chimney.
Who Gets to Vote? Who Gets to Be Pope?
Technically, there are only three ironclad requirements to be elected pope:
Must be male.
Must be Catholic.
Must be baptized.
That’s it. In theory, any baptized male Catholic can be elected pope. There’s not even an age requirement. A male infant just baptized in the Church can be elected pope, and a 120 year-old, baptized male Catholic on his deathbed can be elected pope.
In practice, there are four more (unofficial) requirements:
Must be a member of the College of Cardinals.
Must have substantial leadership experience in the Church.
Must be seen as old enough but not too old. Obviously, this is a bit subjective.
And most critically: must be theologically palatable to a majority of cardinal electors.
There are currently 252 members of the College of Cardinals, but only 135 are eligible to vote in this conclave because a cardinal cannot have yet achieved their 80th birthday on the first official day of the papal vacancy.
Voting cardinals are called cardinal electors.
Because voting is restricted to cardinals who are younger than 80, this is generally seen as the unofficial age maximum, but it’s also not out of the realm of possibility we get a new pope who’s 80 or older. Very unlikely but not impossible.
Interestingly, Major Archbishop George Alencherry of India celebrated his 80th birthday on April 19th, thus losing his eligibility as a cardinal elector just two days before the passing of Pope Francis.
On the other side of fate, Cardinal Carlos Osoro Sierra of Spain celebrates his 80th birthday on May 16th, thus making the cut as a cardinal elector by three weeks.
But not every eligible cardinal elector will participate in this conclave. Cardinal Antonio Cañizares Llovera of Spain and Cardinal John Njue of Kenya will not attend for health reasons, thus bringing the voting total to 133.
How Does Voting Work?
Conclaves have been held in the Sistine Chapel since 1492, nearly two decades before Michelangelo was commissioned by Pope Julius II to paint its iconic ceiling.
After the cardinal electors and support staff have processed into the room, they will hear a sermon about the current state of the Church and which qualities might be most desirable in a pontiff to navigate challenges facing it. This is given by a non-voting cardinal.
They take their oaths, the non-essential staff are ordered to leave the room, the room is sealed, and the voting begins.
On the first day—which is today—the first ballot will more than likely be cast, although it’s not required.
The following day—tomorrow—and each successive voting day until a new pontiff is elected, a maximum of four ballots are cast: two in the morning and two in the afternoon.
A two-thirds majority is required to elect a new pope, so 89 votes of the 133 cardinal electors present.
If there is no pontiff elected after three days of voting—which is highly unlikely—there will be a day of prayer and a sermon from a senior cardinal.
If there’s still no pope after seven further ballots, there’s another day of prayer and reflection and a sermon from a senior cardinal.
And then—again—if there’s no result after another seven further ballots, there will be another day of prayer and reflection and a sermon from a senior cardinal.
But now—following that third break of prayer and reflection—the process changes: the two top vote-getters on the previous ballot will go heads up, and only they may receive votes but cannot vote themselves.
I promise it will not get that far. In fact, the odds of the voting going past the the third day of voting are extremely slim.
Francis was elected on the fifth ballot in 2013, Benedict XVI on the fourth ballot in 2005, and John Paul II on the eighth ballot in 1978. You have to go all the way back to the 1922 Conclave for the last time a pontiff was elected past the ninth ballot: Pius XI on the eleventh ballot.
I’m fairly confident in stating that we’ll have a new pope by Friday evening.
After each round of voting is completed, the physical ballots are collected and burned in a stove that’s been specially installed in the Sistine Chapel, along with a chemical mix to indicate to the public the result of the vote, which can be seen through a chimney also specially installed on the roof solely for this purpose.
If there’s no new pope, the smoke produced will be black, the chemicals being potassium perchlorate, anthracene, and sulfur.
If we have a new pope, the smoke produced will be white, the chemicals being potassium chlorate, lactose, and rosin.
Who Will Be the Next Pope?
As with any big election, there are candidates deemed frontrunners, and papal conclaves are no exception. Cardinals who are spotlighted as contenders are called papabile.
But that said, there’s a famous saying that you’re going to hear a lot over the next few days by commentators: "He who enters as pope into the conclave leaves as a cardinal."
It’s a cliche, but it’s quite true.
For example, Cardinal Giuseppe Siri was considered papabile in four separate conclaves (1958, 1963, and both in 1978), and he was passed over each time.
More recently, Cardinal Angelo Scola went into the 2013 Conclave as a favorite and, in fact, received the most votes on the first ballot, but support for him stalled through subsequent ballots and he never came close to a two-thirds majority.
He lost, of course, to Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio (Pope Francis), who had been considered papabile in the 2005 Conclave but was not considered a contender in 2013.
You see how unpredictable this all can be?
So, while there are papabile, don’t take it to the bank that we won’t see someone else come out of nowhere to be elected.
Support for candidates during voting typically revolves around three primary factors: the age of a cardinal, their place on the ideological spectrum, and their regional appeal.
On the more progressive side of the spectrum, you have Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy (69), Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines (67), Cardinal Mario Grech of Malta (68), and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline of France (66).
On the more conservative side are Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary (72), Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea (79), and Cardinal Kurt Koch of Sweden (75).
In the moderate area of the spectrum are Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy (70), Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Italy (60), and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (65).
These are not clean categorizations. For example, some observers would describe Cardinal Aveline and Cardinal Grech as more moderate and Cardinal Pizzaballa as more progressive and Cardinal Besungu as more conservative.
But as a general framework, this suffices.
The big question: how much will the conclave be a referendum on the notably progressive tenure of Pope Francis? Will cardinal electors continue to move in his direction or opt for a moderate break from the theologically political debates that have saturated the Church over the past decade?
It’s hard to say, but this I’m pretty confident in stating this: the most conservative papabile are unlikely to be elected. Cardinals Erdo, Sarah, and Koch will probably not be the next pope.
This is because Pope Francis appointed 108 of the 133 participating cardinal electors (81%), already giving progressives and moderates a bit more of an edge, and beyond that, the conservative papabile are largely seen as too conservative.
However, cardinal electors may not be down for going with Cardinal Tagle (my personal favorite) and Cardinal Zuppi, neither of whom I would describe as “too progressive” but are seen that way by many conservatives.
I’m hoping for Cardinal Tagle, but my gut feeling is that a moderate will be elected, which gives the Church a break from theological squabbling.
So, which moderate?
I think Cardinal Pizzaballa will likely be seen as too young; at just 60, he’s practically a young man in the context of the College and would likely be leading the Church for decades. Also working against him is being from Italy when the Church is hoping to expand globally. And yet, he’s also an expert on the Middle East, which is obviously a huge plus at the moment.
Cardinal Parolin is at about the right age (70) but also from Italy. However, he’s widely respected by both sides of the ideological spectrum and has mostly won praise (with a bump or two) as the Vatican’s Secretary of State.
Cardinal Besungu is interesting because he has a more eclectic theological placement: he’s seen as especially progressive on climate change but also quite anti-LGBTQ. However, he’s 65 and would be well positioned to help the Church grow in Africa.
So, there are a lot of factors here to take into account, but my gut feeling is that of all the papabile, Cardinal Parolin is the safest choice, which may be what cardinal electors want after the particularly progressive tenure of Pope Francis.
Will An American Be Elected Pope?
Short answer: no.
But here’s the longer answer:
Interestingly, the Vatican is currently being run by an American of Irish birth: Cardinal Kevin Farrell, who serves as the Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church. That's essentially the Pope's chief-of-staff. The Camerlengo becomes the Vatican's regent during a papal vacancy.
Sometimes, in convos about Vatican politics, I'm asked if I think an American will ever be pope. The answer is simple: I *strongly* doubt it'll ever happen and likely not in our lifetimes.
Some commentators will say the chances are slim in this conclave. I think that's generous. It's nearly zero.
The biggest reason is that America--recent events aside--is still the most powerful country on earth. The optics absolutely matter, and the College of Cardinals take optics seriously. An American pope is bad optics, even if that hypothetical pontiff's politics were resolutely global in outlook.
The second reason, certainly overlapping with the first, is that the Catholic Church takes outreach seriously, particularly where expansion is obvious. This is partly why Asia and Africa will be big factors in this conclave: electing a cardinal from these regions is smart for global growth.
Third: there are no Americans who can lay substantial claim to be being papabile. There's, like, a .001% chance that a perfect storm could elect one of the 17 American cardinals, but a LOT would have to happen.
For example, there's a (very unlikely) scenario in which someone like Cardinal Robert Prevost is elected: a compromise candidate who's broadly considered safe and palatable between both ends of the ideological spectrum. But there are other cardinals that fit this and Prevost could be in 20+ years.
Far more unlikely: Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of New York. He's probably the most well-known American Catholic prelate. Charismatic and popular with conservatives, sure, but he's also got a *complicated* past and seen as Very American, which strongly works against him. No dice.
Basically, the conditions most ripe for an American pope would be the cardinal electors coalescing around a compromise candidate (non-partisan) with experience primarily outside the U.S. and old enough to be seen as a caretaker pope until a future conclave and somehow, no else like that is available.
So... it's not gonna happen. There will not be an American pope in my lifetime, and I think that's a very good thing. Church leadership should be more global in outlook, both in practice and optics, and it's very, very hard to do that with an American pope.
Regardless of what happens over the next few days, let’s all hope the next leader of the Catholic Church continues the example of Pope Francis when it comes to inviting people into the fold and emphasizing love and community over judgement and division.
Also: while we’re all waiting for the result, check out “Habemus Papam” (2011, dir. Nanni Moretti), one of the more charming and hilarious films I’ve ever seen. It’s about a cardinal who’s elected pope and doesn’t want the job, and although serious in construction, it has delightful humor woven throughout.
Although “Conclave” is a great film, “Habemus Papam” will make you smile.
Thank you, Charlotte, for a thoughtful and clear explanation of the conclave process for your American and not-universally-Catholic audience.
Gosh, thanks for all this great research and discussion! I remember watching to see if the smoke was white or black when Pope Paul was elected (yes, I am old), and frankly, had forgotten the conclave was underway.